The weak market demand during the same period last year, the price cutting promotions launched by main brands in China in July, and follow-up stocking for holidays are all contributing factors to this growth. In contrast, the LCD TV panel procurement has been sliding to 2.79 million units with MoM regressed demand of 8.2 percent.
WitsView has modified the worldwide LCD TV demand to 201.4 million units this June, and the latest number has indicated the YoY growth of merely 7 percent of the overall demand. Due to the current global economic status and the fact that “house appliance to the countryside” subsidies will be gradually terminated (three provinces by the end 2011 and nine provinces in 2012), the growth in China is expected to drop from 15 percent this year to 10~12 percent in 2012, and the overall growth of wolrdwide LCD TV next year will be around 7~10 percent.
July shipment status for top six brands
WitsView Assistant VP, Burrell-Liu, indicates that the July shipments for the top six Chinese brands are as follows: TCL ranked top one with 25 percent growth, followed by Changhong’s 16 percent of growth, Hisense increased its shipment by 15 percent, while Skyworth and Konka increased by 13 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, Haier suffered the sole drop of 13 percent.
In terms of the July shipment ratio for all brands, Hisense is ranked number one with 25 percent of shares followed by the TCL’s 21 percent, Skyworth’s 19 percent. Haier’s market share dropped to 8.5 percent, and ranked last. Most notably, Hisense, TCL, and Skyworth ranked from number 8 to 10 among the Top 10 global LCD TV brand market shares.
Table 1: Market shares of global LCD TV shipments in first half of 2011
Source: WitsView, Taiwan.The penetration rates for six LED TV major brands in July are around 48 percent, while the average penetration rate of LED TV from January to July is around 40 percent. According to WitsView survey, the overall LCD TV penetration rate is approximately 42 percent, while the average penetration rate among top six brands in China is roughly 45 percent.
The domestic and international shipment ratios between January and July shipments for six major brands was approximately 76 percent to 24 percent, while the shipment ratio between China and international markets was about 73 percent to 27 percent. In July, there was a MoM growths of both shipment ratio and shipment quantity of domestic market for the first time since May, and the high shipment level has been maintained for export.
July panel procurement status for top six brands
In July, CMI accounted for 38 percent of the shipments of the top six panel brands and maintained the leading position for three consecutive months, with YoY growth of 56 percent and MoM growth of 13.5 percent. LGD ranked 2nd with 24 percent of total shipments (regressed 16 percent from the previous month).
AUO and SAMSUNG ranked third and fourth with market shares of 17 percent and 15 percent, respectively. As of July this year, the top four of the six major panel makers, CMI and LGD have secured first and second place with 29.5 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively, while SEC and AUO took 17.7 percent and 17.2 percent of shares, respectively.
Conclusion
WitsView’s assistant VP, Burrell Liu, indicated that with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Holidays in China, the overall shipments among six major brands are estimated to grow by 19 percent in Q3. Despite the significant increase in shipment expectation, the six major brands must carefully control their TV and panel shipments with a current inventory of six weeks. Moreover, while market demand in China has been relatively robust compared to the markets in other parts of the world, China only accounts for about 20 percent of the global market, hardly enough momentum to drive the demand and other international brands in the remaining 80 percent of the markets.
WitsView has also estimated the global LCD TV growths at around 15 percent in both Q3 and Q4. This number may appear decent, but it has been modified several times with reduced demands. With the excessive production capacity, the growth hardly alleviates the oversupply situation and price decline.
From the suppliers perspective, Korean makers maintained about 80% of average utilization rates, after taking into consideration of their customer bases and marketing strategies. The reduction of utilization rate is necessary to prevent further price decline and to maintain a balance of the overall production and sales. The price decline can only be stopped if Taiwanese makers reduced their production capacity to a extreme of 50 percent as in 2008. However, a consensus in production reduction among panel makers is necessary for panel price to be stabilized both in Q4 or in the future.
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